Baidoa’s takeover by the Somali military and the subsequent ousting of South West State President, Mr. Abdiasis Hassan Mohamed, also known as Laftagaren, may provide new energy to the Somali Federal Government and lead to further steps towards holding one-man one-vote elections in the country. However, the Somali Federal Government rejected the elections held in Baidoa on Saturday, which resulted in the re-election of President Laftagaren and the Speakers of Parliament in South West State. In response, the government hastily deployed two brigades of its national army to Baidoa, sending a message to the Somali people that they will not accept a return to indirect elections, which have been used in the country for the past 20 years. While the government led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may have resolved the political dispute with South West State through military means, there is another ongoing conflict with the Jubaland administration. The removal of President Laftagaren may expedite a decision on the fate of Jubaland President, Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Islam, also known as Ahmed Madobe, and the possibility of deploying the Somali National Army (SNA) to Kismayo once again. This move may be seen as an attempt by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to gain control of the country and hold universal elections. Jubaland held its presidential and parliamentary elections in November 2024, but the Somali Federal Government does not recognize the results and considers Ahmed Madobe’s re-election for a third term to be unlawful. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Mr. Hamze Abdi Barre have accused Ahmed Madobe of not keeping his promise to unite the local, parliamentary, and presidential elections in order to hold universal elections. On Saturday, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stated in Mogadishu that the era of indirect elections is over. It is believed that he ordered the military takeover of Baidoa, despite calls from the United Nations and the African Union for the dispute to be resolved through dialogue. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is strongly opposed to giving up his idea of holding democratic elections where citizens can exercise their right to participate in one-man one-vote elections and elect their leaders. The main point of contention between the Somali Federal Government and opposition groups in Somalia is the type of elections to be held in 2026.
