Reforms and political Revolution in the Horn of Africa.

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The Reforms and Political Revolution in Ethiopia have brought a new wave of optimism in the nation

As political transformation is taking place in the Horn of Africa at an unprecedented speed, one would wonder and worry if Somaliland understands or aware the impact or the effects that the changes can have on Somaliland economically, security and politically and if we aware, then, what are the political and preventive measure that we have in place so far?

The historians and the geopolitical experts all acknowledged, recognised and agreed that the political transformation in the Horn of Africa are arguably the most counter-intuitive development in the 21st century, thus, this speedy transformation will undoubtedly deliver its benefit as well as its downfalls to, not only Ethiopia but also its neighbours and the entire region

In recent years, the Ethiopians were on the verge of a sudden failure and collapse due to their own internal problems have now realised to safe their country from a nasty destruction

For the first time in their history, Ethiopians swiftly appointed an Oromo Prime Minister, the new prime minister swiftly succeeded to end the 20-year-long conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea agreement that reconnected families and old friends
But in just a few months the new Prime Minister has made policy changes that many Ethiopians never dreamed of hearing or seeing in their lifespans. This has included the liberation of tens of thousands of political prisoners and an end to the country’s war with Eritrea.

The change is truly magnificent; it’s great but then again, this quick change can have its consequences and downfall if not planned and handled with care. Any sudden or quick political correctness or revolution can or will cause damages or can sometimes bring circumstances that is bigger than the planned political changes.

Even thus, the new premier Abiy Ahmed, has a long way to go and is yet to find a firm footing and harmony within the deeply rooted and ethnically divided nation
This highlights the fact that politics changes overnight and that this Swift political transformation can be an opportunity and a good lesson to learn for everyone, including Somaliland and Somalia case, this paves the way for Somaliland and Somalia to sit and discuss the best and the quickest way to live side by side as two different nations, the two different brotherly countries that they were before their unification in 1960

In Somaliland, We hope and pray that Ethiopian problems are screened out as speedily as possible, cause their problems can also become our problems as well as the entire Horn of Africa problems.
We all aware and understand that Ethiopia needs the change for the good with this shift is taking place right now, but my only worry as to why with such unprecedented speed? If one drives along the fast lane in the motorway, then it’s very crucial and critical to keep focusing carefully with hands on the wheel and eyes on the road.

There’s also a need to know or understand the real force or energy that is driving this transformation.
Why and what is the political purpose of this transformation in the horn?
From my little understanding in politics in the region especially the Horn of Africa, It’s all to do with the strategic and economic rivalries between the United States of America and China, Saudi/United Arab Emirates and Turkey/Qatar rivalries.

The Chinese are heavily and dangerously investing in the entire African continent, especially in the Horn of Africa
The recent Chinese mega investment in Djibouti has resulted that the mighty United States is being challenged in economically and is nearly struck out of Djibouti by its geopolitical rival China. The United States as we all aware will never give up competing with china and will likely maintain their strategical and economic interests in the horn by hook and by a crook, but, so far the United States government is yet to unveil a coherent policy in the Horn. I am certain they already possess their response policy in the horn

However, in Somaliland, can this unexpected speedy reform and political revolution change in the Horn of Africa be an opportunity that paves the way for Somaliland international recognition, the gulf states recent and unexpected change of mind in terms of their new political and economic strategy interest policy in the horn of Africa, particularly after the recent UAE v Djibouti port fallout?.

The gulf states at last found out the facts and reality in Somaliland and could not ignore or turn a blind eye any longer for the unprecedented Somaliland success stories, democracy, peace, stability and achievements that somaliland enjoyed for the passed 27.5 years, which in the end persuaded and led the gulf states begin to have a good relationship with Somaliland. The gulf states finally deleted their previous mis-informed history of somaliland before and after 1991, the gulf states now fully understand Somaliland case after their fact finding mission in Somaliland.

Somaliland relations with the Gulf. For the past 27 plus years, due to old Arab political beliefs towards Somalia, Somaliland was non-existent or maybe the gulf state countries turned a blind eye for Somaliland case for whatever reason, has now realised and amended theirs policy due to Somaliland’s strategy location and the huge potential businesses.
The gulf countries also studied Somaliland’s history before and after 1991 and realised the facts that Somaliland success story is something that can no longer be turned on blind eye or ignored, they also found out how strategic and important that Somaliland can be politically and economically, thus, this is one the reasons why UAE recently signed the DP world Berbera port expansion with staggering 440 million dollars agreement, which is the biggest investment for Somaliland history, the UAE also signed an agreement to build the main road that will connect Somaliland and Ethiopia as well as the military base in Berbera which will undoubtedly boost the economy as well as creating major jobs for Somaliland, this will definitely tighten both Somaliland and the gulf states securities. A golden opportunities to take Somaliland’s economy to an unimaginative and unprecedented new level in the years

It’s also worth mentioning the recent international community’s new political development towards Somaliland, especially from the USA, U.K. And Swedish changes of mind that indicates their willingness of Somaliland recognition once again.
In 2018, Somaliland marks the 27anniversary of Somaliland’s independence. In May 1991, after the fall of Somali republic, the Somali union that Somaliland created and joined the southern Somalis in the foremost place without any preconditions for the sake of creating greater Somalia. Somaliland decided to reclaim their lost power and independence for the second time in 1991. Somaliland has now for the past 27 years a functioning political system, peaceful presidential and parliamentary elections, police and military forces and own currency with little or no international assistances.

Despite the country’s 800-kilo meter-long shores on the Indian ocean Somaliland were able to liberate it from the threat of piracy with no service or assistance from outside world,Somaliland succeeded and maintains the safety of more than 40 thousands ships that passes through the Red Sea and into our seas every year. Somaliland has managed to ensure and hold on the piracy away from their seas, which means, somaliland coastal guard ensure and protects the safety of the $700 billion trade between Western world and Asia that runs each year through the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. The UAE and the other gulf states understood the possibility and the huge potential business that they can do with 110 million Ethiopian land locked country and beyond.

The same gulfs Horn model strategy could then be extended to the entire continent. Apart from the huge potential businesses within Ethiopia and the residue of the continent soon after this gulf business plan strategy is completed, not forgetting the political and economic rivalries between USA,KSA, UAE versus Turkey, Qatar and the influential Chinese businesses in the African continent, specially with the horn, particularly the Ethiopians
Somaliland has also handled, protected and succeeded to keep the extremist groups in the Horn of Africa away from its entire district to make sure that the extremist groups have no place in Somaliland and it’s neighbours of Ethiopia and Djibouti. Somaliland has also controlled the influx of the unprecedented illegal immigration that shook the entire earth in the past 27 years, human trafficking, as well as the unstable situation in Somalia and the war in Yemen.

Gulf nations realise the grandness of the horn’s both politically and economically and today became the key element through which the geopolitical landscape of the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa is predesigned.

Ever since the fall out and disputes of the Gulf Cooperation Council feud that led to a Qatar blockade more than a twelvemonth ago, neither politics nor security has been the same in the Horn of Africa. This is particularly the case in Somalia, where the competing geopolitical interests of the UAE and Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Qatar and Turkey on the other hand.

There are also other developments towards Somaliland recognition from the international community. United Kingdom recently accepted and permitted an entry visa for Somaliland nationals and this is a vast and unprecedented step.

The Swedish government is likewise calling for the rest of the European countries to recognise Somaliland
The Christian Democrats (KD) stated that despite the fragile situation in the conflict-hit country, it has been moving in the opposite direction, toward peace and stability, although its relationship with Somalia remains sensitive. “The KD believe that the recognition of Somaliland should be performed in cooperation with EU member states, when the conflict has approached a solution,” the KD responded.
The Sweden Democrats, however, sounded a more radical approach, supporting Somaliland’s independence.

The swedes state that Somaliland meets all the requirements the government owns in order to recognise a country as independent. They have control over their territory and serve as a major example in their part of the world, with democratic elections, well-functioning institutions and relative peace and stability,” Markus Wiechel said, arguing that the state of affairs in Somaliland differs a lot from the rest of what is still known as Somalia. Wiechel also contended that Somaliland’s recognition would serve as a good example of “what can be achieved while resolving conflicts with dialogue rather than violence.”

Earlier this year, Somaliland’s Special Envoy to the EU Michael Torstensson called the breakaway country “the most democratic in the Horn of Africa,” despite being surrounded by dictators, terrorists and pirates.
In one of the world’s most vulnerable areas — characterised by tyranny, war and terrorism — the republic of Somaliland in the Horn of Africa is a brilliant exception. The country has developed into the region’s only functioning democracy, with constant in-depth work for human rights and gender equality. The country meets all criteria for full recognition, as the independent country it is,” Torstensson wrote in an opinion piece pushing for Somaliland’s recognition published by Värden Idag.
https://sputniknews.com/africa/201711211059287479-sweden-somaliland-independence/

The USA

Michael Rubin@mrubin1971 August 22, 2018 | Washington Examiner wrote an excellent and very well articulated article titled THE US NEEDS TO RECOGNISE SOMALILAND BEFORE RUSSIA DOES
https://www.aei.org/publication/the-us-needs-to-recognize-somaliland-before-russia-does/

Thank you very much, Mr Michael Rubin. What a well written and informative article. USA should RECOGNISE the republic of Somaliland. The case of Somaliland is a unique one and this country should’ve been recognised long ago as it has acquired a legal right for the international community to do so considering somaliland earlier independence in 1960 and the fact that they maintained peace and true democracy after 1991

In Somaliland, it is indeed very important for Somaliland to question and act upon the following

1- Are we organised to face or challenge the impact that the horn transformation can bring

2- in this speedy transformation in Ethiopia and the horn in general, are there any political benefit for Somaliland and if there are benefits for Somaliland, what are the benefits and what have we fared so far?

3- What are the economical and political benefits for us and what have we fared so far?

4- What are the challenges and the impact it may have on Somaliland

5- what about DP World Berbera port agreement and what implications it might hold on the accord

6- Despite all these changes in the Horn of Africa, Somaliland needs to wake up and chase after their political and economic interests. Somaliland and the Horn of Africa are now the new emerging market with unlimited economic potentials

Ahmed Yasin Mohamed Jama

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